Assumptions and Default Interpretations

Market creators are encouraged to make their markets as clear as possible. However in order to avoid insufficiently precise markets to be flagged as invalid, the following assumptions are made:

• All dates default to UTC with the 24h clock

  • e.g., “Will the Artemis 1 mission launch before 2025-01-01?” will be interpreted as “Will the Artemis 1 mission launch before 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC?”.

• Dates using “/” are assumed to be written in the DD/MM/YYYY or DD/MM/YY format. In case centuries are omitted (i.e., DD/MM/YY), centuries are assumed to be the same as the resolution time (i.e., 21st century).

  • e.g., “Will the Paris Agreement targets be met by 31/12/50?” will be interpreted as “Will the Paris Agreement targets be met by 31st December 2050?” (assuming the resolution date is in the 21st century).

• Entities are assumed to reference the most obvious entity with that name, taking the context into account.

  • e.g., “Will Taylor Swift win the Grammy Award for Album of the Year in 2025?” refers to the singer Taylor Swift, whereas “Will Taylor Swift publish a research paper in Nature by 2025?” would be contextually unusual but still refer to the singer unless specified otherwise.

• In case units are omitted, they are assumed to be the units which are the most often used in this particular situation.

  • e.g., “Will the price of gold exceed 2000 in 2024?” will be interpreted as “Will the price of gold exceed 2000 USD per ounce in 2024?” (assuming USD per ounce is the standard unit for measuring the price of gold).