Market Rules and Guidelines

Newly created prediction markets must adhere to a set of rules in order to be identified as a valid market.

The outcome of the market must be known by its Resolution Date.

• Valid: “Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup final be won by a European team?” with 2026-12-19 as a resolution date.

• Invalid: “Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup final be won by a European team?” with 2026-11-19 as a resolution date. (assuming the final is after this date).

Relative dates are not allowed.

• Invalid: “Will the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be re-elected in the next 6 months?” (“next 6 months” is a relative date).

Markets around moral values and non-facts are not allowed

• Invalid: “Is it right to allow capital punishment?”

Markets where none of the possible answers are valid are not allowed

• Invalid: “What is the capital of France?” with the outcomes “Berlin” and “Madrid”

Markets which directly incentivise immoral actions are not allowed*

• Invalid: “Will Person X be assassinated by 2025?” (Anyone could bet on “Yes” and attempt to assassinate the person to win the bet, or effectively placing a bounty on person X).

* However this does not prevent market creation where:

• violent events are not the direct result of conscious beings:

  • Valid: “How many earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater will occur in California in 2024?” (Earthquakes are natural events).

• whose main source of uncertainty is not related to a potential violent action:

  • Valid: “Will Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?” (The main source of uncertainty is the vote of US citizens, not a potential murder of a presidential candidate).

• which could give an incentive to specific participants to commit an immoral violent action, but are in practice unlikely:

  • Valid: “Will a major political figure be involved in a scandal by 2025?” (It’s unlikely for people to fabricate a scandal to win a bet)